I think that this will be an interesting year in the mobile world, so I am going to venture out some predictions. Here are ten:
1. A major handset player will exit the market.
“Exit the market” as in cease to be an independent company, so they might be acquired by another. There has been a good deal of banter about this and most are saying that it is one of three, but offer up on specifically: Palm. Good night and good-bye. Despite the splash that “Nova” may make at CES this year, I, too, think it is too little, too late. Motorola may join them, but Sprint will hang on, at least for this year.
2. Android advances
Maybe. There about half a dozen Android handsets prepping for launch in Q1/Q2, most will fizzle.
I think that we will see some notable advances in China; however, once some very compelling (read: iPhone-like) hardware comes to the platform, we’ll see it take off. The other thing that Android needs is an Exchange ActiveSync client. Will it be Aardvark, the most mentioned of the lot, or another? We shall see.
3. Microsoft makes gains
We’ll see some updates to Windows Mobile this year (they have to, don’t they? that is if Microsoft wishes to remain competitive) . Supposedly it is WM 6.5 Let’s wait and see (and hope).
4. “App Store” accumulations
While every vendor and their 3rd cousin will have an ‘app store’ by the end of 2009, let’s not forget that the mobile operators, particularly those in the U.S., will do their best to find a way to get their hands in to that cookie jar.
Let’s hope that ‘every vendor’ includes Microsoft and that they make it as easy and painless as Apple has done. As a Windows Mobile user, I will be more than happy to see Handango left behind (and I expect some complaints from Handango if Microsoft does bring out an ‘app store’).
4. Network evolutions
4G, baby! We will see WiMAX take off after H2 2009, although we have the classic chicken and egg problem, but with more WiMAX-capable devices entering the market, this will be mitigated. From the mobile operators (ATT,VZW) in the U.S. we will LTE rollouts, although Verizon is the only one who has ponied up a date (albeit informal). Sprint, who has rolled out WiMAX in Baltimore under the brand ‘XOHM’, will now drop that branding since the merger of Sprint’s WiMAX portfolio with Clearwire.
Clearwire now needs to get running and get WiMAX pushed out to enough locations to attract users away from 3G alternatives while keeping the cost from being prohibitive. Once we some penetration from WiMAX, I think we might see some tie-ins from Time Warner Cable and Comcast.
And T-Mobile? Well, let’s just hope they get their goofy 3G rolled out across the U.S. by H2 2009 so they don’t leave their customers too far behind.
5. iPhone revs
2009 will mark the introduction of a new iPhone form factor. I have seen some folks talking about a version with a QWERTY keyboard, but I don’t think so. I’m going with the ‘smaller form factor’ prediction.
6. Pre-paid data
We will see flat rate data advance to pre-paid phones, particularly outside the U.S.. I think that we will also see an increase in pre-paid phone sales in the U.S. as well.
7. Mobile web in bloom
Despite more advanced browsers in or coming to market, there is still a need for mobile-friendly/optimized sites. And the mobile web will grow and grow as this realization sets in. I think we’ll see at least 55% growth in mobile web traffic.
8. Mobile advertising will remain challenged
What to say here? There will undoubtedly be a shake out of the current players, but lower fill rates and falling revenues make this space a tough challenge in 2009.
9. LBS gets leveraged
The increasing number of handsets that are GPS enabled, or able to leverage triangulation (like Google’s My Location service), will drive location based services and content. Expect some early tie-ins with mobile advertising, but that will wither until a profitable model is discovered.
10. Barcodes, barcodes, barcodes
No, not the 'classic’ 1D barcode, I’m talking about 2D barcodes. BCBPs, QR codes, and the like will be more prevalent than ever.
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